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Simple noise estimates and pseudoproxies for the last 21k years
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Description: Climate reconstructions are means to extract the signal from uncertain paleo-observations, so called proxies. It is essential to evaluate these reconstructions to understand and quantify their uncertainties. Similarly, comparing climate simulations and proxies requires approaches to bridge the temporal and spatial differences between both and address their specific uncertainties. One way to achieve these two goals are so called pseudoproxies. These are surrogate proxy records within the virtual reality of a climate simulation. They in turn depend on an understanding of the uncertainties of the real proxies including the noise-characteristics disturbing the original environmental signal. Common pseudoproxy approaches so far concentrate on data with high temporal resolution over the last approximately 2,000 years. Here we provide a simple but flexible noise model for potentially low-resolution sedimentary climate proxies for temperature on millennial time-scales, the code for calculating a set of pseudoproxies from a simulation, and one example of pseudoproxies. The noise model considers the influence of other environmental variables, a dependence on the climate state, a bias due to changing seasonality, modifications of the archive (for example, bioturbation), potential sampling variability, and a measurement error. Model, code, and data allow to develop new ways of comparing simulation data with proxies on long time-scales. Code and data are available at https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/ZBEHX.
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