Rational adaptation in lexical prediction: The influence of prediction strength

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I'll be available on zoom (https://zoom.us/j/168112194) on Friday 12:10 - 13:10 EDT. Any questions or comments by email (talness@mail.tau.ac.il) are also welcomed! Abstract: Processing an unexpected word entails measurable costs when the initial prediction is strong. We hypothesized that since the disconfirmation of strong predictions incurs costs, it would also trigger adaptation mechanisms influencing the processing of subsequent (potentially) strong predictions. We formulated and tested a Bayesian adaptation model, whereby participants iteratively update their belief about predictive validity and use this belief to weigh the strength of their predictions. In two experiments, we provide evidence indicating that repeated disconfirmation of predictions in high constraint contexts results in lesser commitment to predictions in subsequent high constraint contexts, alleviating prediction failure costs.

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