Divorce ACS  /

The Coming Divorce Decline

Affiliated institutions: University of Maryland

Date created: | Last Updated:


Creating DOI. Please wait...

Create DOI

Category: Communication

Description: This paper analyzes the odds of divorce from 2008 to 2017, using multivariate models of marital events data from the American Community Survey. I find that the falling observed divorce rates over the last decade are apparent in the fully adjusted model as well. Further, age specific divorce rates show that the trend in the last decade has been driven by younger women (despite higher divorce rates among older women than in the past). Finally, I analyze the characteristics of newly-married couples over the last decade, and identify trends that portend further declines in divorce rates. Marriage is become more selective, and more stable, even as attitudes toward divorce are becoming more permissive, and cohabitation has grown less stable. The U.S. is progressing toward a system in which marriage is rarer, and more stable, than it was in the past, representing an increasingly central component of the structure of social inequality.

License: CC0 1.0 Universal

Has supplemental materials for The Coming Divorce Decline on SocArXiv


Loading files...



  • v1 data files - 2008-2016

    Recent Activity

    Loading logs...

  • Presentations

    Recent Activity

    Loading logs...

  • Reviews

    Recent Activity

    Loading logs...


Recent Activity

Loading logs...

OSF does not support the use of Internet Explorer. For optimal performance, please switch to another browser.
This website relies on cookies to help provide a better user experience. By clicking Accept or continuing to use the site, you agree. For more information, see our Privacy Policy and information on cookie use.

Start managing your projects on the OSF today.

Free and easy to use, the Open Science Framework supports the entire research lifecycle: planning, execution, reporting, archiving, and discovery.