AIM: The Epidemiology, Inequalities and Health Economics Theme (T2) will use a series of scoping reviews to identify risk factors and interventions. Causal relevance of risk factors with trajectories and clusters of C-MLTC and all-
cause mortality risk will be ascertained. The association between deprivation, lifetime costs and C-MLTC after
adjustment for key confounders will be quantified.Over 25% of adults in England have
BACKGROUND: Multiple Long-Term Conditions (MLTC). Complex-MLTC (C-MLTC: 4 or more conditions) is more disabling, and is projected to increase from 10% to 17% by 2035. Current management of MLTC focuses on treating individual conditions, causing unnecessary polypharmacy, increased burden for
patients/carers, and inefficient referrals to specialists, who may not recognise the impact of MLTC.
Research has focused primarily on describing the problem, identifying common patterns of MLTC, and strong
determinants like socioeconomic status. However, comprehensive knowledge is lacking regarding which
conditions are found together, how the burden of C-MLTC relates to organ health, ageing and lived experience,
and what risk factors and interventions may influence development of C-MLTC.
Novel AI-based methods, utilising large-scale healthcare data, coupled with active ethical engagement of patients
and stakeholders in developing these methods, provides a powerful opportunity to improve care pathways.
PROGRAM AIMS
I. To harness the power of longitudinal EHR to develop AI-enhanced models and tools and improve the
management (prevention and treatment) of mid-life and early old age MLTC and C-MLTC. (T1)
II. To characterise the epidemiology, inequalities and costs of C-MLTC by clusters of disease trajectories
identified in mid-life and early old age. (T2)
III. To ensure decision-making tools and other outputs are fit-for-purpose and account for actual lived care
needs and therefore, serve the needs and expectations of target audiences. (T3)
See the COMPUTE [program][1] homepage
[1]: https://www.phc.ox.ac.uk/research/medical-statistics/COMPUTE
