Taking a disagreeing perspective improves the accuracy of people's quantitative estimates

Date created: | Last Updated:

: DOI | ARK

Creating DOI. Please wait...

Create DOI

Category: Project

Description: Many decisions rest upon people’s ability to make estimates of unknown quantities. In these judgments, the aggregate estimate of a crowd of individuals is often more accurate than most individual estimates. Remarkably, similar principles apply when aggregating multiple estimates from the same person and a key challenge is to identify strategies that improve the accuracy of people’s aggregate estimates. Here, we present the following strategy: combine people’s first estimate with their second estimate made from the perspective of someone they often disagree with. In five pre-registered experiments (N = 6425, with 53,086 estimates) with populations from the US and UK, we find that such a strategy produces accurate estimates (as compared to when people make a second guess, or when second estimates are made from the perspective of someone they often agree with). These results suggest that disagreement, often highlighted for its negative impact, is a powerful tool in producing accurate judgments.

Files

Loading files...

Citation

Tags

Recent Activity

Loading logs...

OSF does not support the use of Internet Explorer. For optimal performance, please switch to another browser.
Accept
This website relies on cookies to help provide a better user experience. By clicking Accept or continuing to use the site, you agree. For more information, see our Privacy Policy and information on cookie use.
Accept
×

Start managing your projects on the OSF today.

Free and easy to use, the Open Science Framework supports the entire research lifecycle: planning, execution, reporting, archiving, and discovery.