This repository includes the data and R scripts needed to reproduce the results found in: Marvin, DC, Sleeter, BM, Cameron, DR, Nelson, E, & Plantinga, AJ. (in-prep). Natural climate solutions provide robust carbon mitigation capacity under future climate change scenarios. ### Abstract Natural climate solutions (NCS) are now recognized as an important tool for national and state governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Using California as a globally relevant case study, we evaluate the magnitude of climate mitigation potential from NCS starting in 2020 under four climate change scenarios. We further evaluate the effect of a 10- and 20-year delay in widespread NCS implementation on emission reductions. By mid-century NCS implementation leads to a large increase in the net carbon stored by CA ecosystems, in two scenarios flipping the state from a net carbon source to a net sink. NCS continue to provide a strong mitigating effect, reducing losses 41-54% by 2100, with total costs of deployment of 752–777 million USD annually. Rapid implementation of a statewide portfolio of NCS interventions provides long-term investment in protecting ecosystem carbon in the face of climate change driven disturbances. ### List of Data Tables **Data Table 1.** County-level LUCAS model output of annual transitions among state classes for each combination of climate future and intervention scenario. **Data Table 2.** County-level LUCAS model output of annual state classes for each combination of climate future and intervention scenario. **Data Table 3.** Annualized net return per km2 for each species-county forest stand if harvested as a clear-cut in year t since its planting. Estimated growth function, stumpage price, and production cost for each species-county combination from ref. (47) **Data Table 4.** Data on the areal share of managed forest from Multi-source Land cover data from ref. (49), species types in county i. **Data Table 5.** The present value of the per acre annualized net return to an infinite series of clear-cut rotations of length T in each county i (including forest establishment costs). We use historic data on the areal share of forest, species types in county i (Data Table 3) to generate a county-level annualized net return to clear-cut forestry. **Data Table 6.** The present value of the per acre annualized net return to an infinite series of clear-cut rotations of length T in each county i (NOT including forest establishment costs). We use historic data on the areal share of forest, species types in county i (Data Table 3) to generate a county-level annualized net return to clear-cut forestry. **Data Table 7.** The present value of the per acre annualized net return to an infinite series of select-cut rotations of length T in each county i (including forest establishment costs). We use historic data on the areal share of forest, species types in county i (Data Table 3) to generate a county-level annualized net return to select-cut forestry. **Data Table 8.** The present value of the per acre annualized net return to an infinite series of select-cut rotations of length T in each county i (NOT including forest establishment costs). We use historic data on the areal share of forest, species types in county i (Data Table 3) to generate a county-level annualized net return to select-cut forestry. **Data Table 9.** County-level area (km2) under each forest management regime (clearcut or selection) by age of forest stand for each combination of climate future and intervention scenario. **Data Table 10.** Potential total forest area under each forest management regime. Calculated using the county-level annual proportion of clearcut and selection (using data from Data Table 1) applied to the total forest area in each county as of 2020. **Data Table 11.** The annualized value of an acre of forest of age T in county k under clear cut management with no establishment costs (2010 USD; use (262.848/226.919) to inflate to 2017 USD). **Data Table 12.** The annualized value of an acre of forest of age T in county k under selective forestry management with no establishment costs (2010 USD; use (262.848/226.919) to inflate to 2017 USD). ### List of Data Summaries **data-summary-carbon-stocks-statewide.csv** Aggregated statewide LUCAS model output of carbon stocks by pool for each combination of climate future and intervention scenario. **data-summary-state-class-statewide.csv** Aggregated statewide LUCAS model output of annual state classes for each combination of climate future and intervention scenario. ### LUCAS Model This syncrosim library (.ssim) contains a fully parameterized Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model.