An illusion of predictability in scientific results

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*An illusion of predictability in scientific results** Data and code: https://github.com/jhofman/illusion-of-predictability Live experiments: * Medical providers and Mechanical Turkers: https://jhofman.github.io/medical-effects/providers/index.html * Data scientists: https://jhofman.github.io/scientific-incentives/psup/psup.html * Faculty: https://jhofman.github.io/scientific-incentives/faculty/psup.html

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