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Description: This project analyzes and predicts the trajectory of immigration and anti-immigration parties in Western Europe from 1962 to 2035. Immigration increased steadily until the 2000s when it reached unprecedented levels. By 2017, countries in Western Europe average 11% of votes cast for anti-immigrant parties. The percentage of the population that are first generation immigrants predicts between 50 and 94% of the variance in these votes across countries in Western Europe. A blog post and a working paper discuss the findings of this research and implications for the future of Europe drawing on theories of group dynamics and empirical research on politics and societies. (Results not altered since the day before the Italian election to preserve scientific integrity).

License: CC-By Attribution 4.0 International


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