The quality and transparency of scholarship is influenced by professional
incentives. So say we all. Naturally much discussion focuses on reforming
incentives. But reforming scholarly incentives is not easy, and incentives
may matter less than structural and demographic forces. Using analogies
from population biology, I sketch some problems and opportunities for
effective science reform. First, incentives arise from structure as much as
from explicit reward. Second, incentives are not all—demography and
development matter as well. Third, there are fundamental limits on the
power of incentives when the fates of individuals are largely up to chance.
There are reasons to think reform can succeed, especially if we adopt a
dynamic and structured view of the cultural evolution of scholarly
communities.