Testing hypotheses about determinants of electoral outcomes: evidence from the 2016 U.S. presidential election

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I conducted this study to test the following two hypotheses: 1) When a U.S. presidential candidate visits a given state more, it will benefit them in the general election, and 2) When turnout levels are higher in a state, it will benefit the Democratic nominee by increasing their performance in that state. I defined beneficial outcomes for a given candidate in a given state as either the candidate in question a higher % of the vote in that state, or a higher degree of overperformance in that state relative to FiveThirtyEight's projections. I did multiple regression analyses using Microsoft Excel's Analysis ToolPak.

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