**Principal Investigator(s):** **Chuck Howard** The University of British Columbia Email: [chuck.howard@sauder.ubc.ca][1] **David Hardisty** University of British Columbia Email: [david.hardisty@sauder.ubc.ca][2] Home page: [http://davidhardisty.info/][3] **Abigail Sussman** University of Chicago Email: [Abigail.Sussman@chicagobooth.edu][4] Home page: [https://www.chicagobooth.edu/faculty/directory/s/abigail-sussman][5] **Melissa Knoll** Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Home page: [https://www.consumerfinance.gov/data-research/cfpb-researchers/melissa-knoll/][6] **Sample size**: 1288 **Field period**: 03/05/2016-06/17/2016 **Abstract**: Past research suggests that consumers tend to under-predict their future expenses, a phenomenon we’ve labeled the expense prediction bias. Building on research in cognitive psychology showing that prospection and retrospection differ in terms of content and experience, we theorize and demonstrate that the expense prediction bias is driven in part by temporal asymmetry: a general tendency to mentally represent the future as more typical than the past. **Hypothesis/Research Questions:** Increasing perceived atypicality of future expenses will increase expense predictions. **Experimental Manipulation(s):** Participants were randomly assigned to one of three conditions. In the control condition they were asked to recall and predict their expenses for the past and next week. In the typical condition they were asked to list three reasons why their expenses would be similar to a typical week before making their prediction. In the atypical condition they were asked to list three reasons why their expenses would the different from a typical week before making their prediction. **Outcome Variables:** Expense prediction Number of expenses listed Amount of each expense listed Financial slack Willingness to spend on an optional expense Willingness to pay for a loan Intention to save vs. repay debt vs. spend **Summary of Findings:** Expense predictions in the atypical condition were significantly higher than in the control and typical conditions, providing support for our primary hypothesis. Our exploration of downstream consequences of the bias did not reveal any notable results. **Findings from this project:** Howard, C., Hardisty, D., & Sussman, A. (November, 2018). A Prototype Theory of Consumer Expense Misprediction. Annual Meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making. New Orleans, USA. Howard, C., Hardisty, D., Sussman, A., & Knoll, M. (October, 2018). Neutralizing the Expense Prediction Bias. Association for Consumer Research Annual Conference. Dallas, USA. Howard, C., Hardisty, D., Sussman, A., & Knoll, M. (June, 2018). Neutralizing the Expense Prediction Bias. Behavioral Decision Research in Management Conference. Harvard University, USA. Howard, C., Hardisty, D., Sussman, A., & Knoll, M. (May, 2018). Neutralizing the Expense Prediction Bias. Boulder Summer Conference on Consumer Financial Decision Making. University of Colorado Boulder, USA. Howard, C., Hardisty, D., Sussman, A., & Knoll, M. (May, 2018). Neutralizing the Expense Prediction Bias. Theory and Practice in Marketing Conference. University of California Los Angeles, USA. Howard, C., Hardisty, D., Sussman, A., & Knoll, M. (February, 2018). Neutralizing the Expense Prediction Bias. Society for Consumer Psychology Annual Conference. Dallas, USA. Howard, C., Hardisty, D., Sussman, A., & Knoll, M. (October, 2016). Understanding the Expense Prediction Bias. Association for Consumer Research Annual Conference. Berlin, Germany. [1]: mailto:chuck.howard@sauder.ubc.ca [2]: mailto:david.hardisty@sauder.ubc.ca [3]: http://davidhardisty.info/ [4]: mailto:Abigail.Sussman@chicagobooth.edu [5]: https://www.chicagobooth.edu/faculty/directory/s/abigail-sussman [6]: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/data-research/cfpb-researchers/melissa-knoll/