CFQ: Eliciting and modeling probability distributions


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Category: Project

Description: This is the "continuous forecasting" project that ran in Year 4 of the Good Judgment Project.

Has supplemental materials for Rolling Forecasts on PsyArXiv


Continuous probability forecasts are useful for making expected value calculations and informing decisions. This study provides tools for estimating continuous probability distributions given discrete probabilistic forecasts. We show that these continuous distributions can be aggregated to yield consensus distributions that consistently outperform the average forecaster. Modeled continuous distrib...


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