Bayesian estimation of age-specific mortality and life expectancy for small areas with defective vital records

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  1. Marcos Roberto Gonzaga

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Description: We develop a Bayesian regression model for small-area mortality schedules that simultaneously addresses the problems of small local samples and underreporting of deaths. We combine a relational model for mortality schedules with probabilistic prior information on death registration coverage – derived from demographic estimation techniques such as Death Distribution Methods, and from field audits done by public health experts. We test the model on small-area data from Brazil. Incorporating external estimates of vital registration coverage though priors improves small-area mortality estimates by accounting for under-registration, and by automatically producing measures of uncertainty.

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