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Pre-Analysis Plan for "Accountability by Law or by Elites?"
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Description: When do mechanisms of democratic accountability succeed in turning public opinion against illiberal politicians? Existing literature on democratic erosion and resilience offers two competing hypotheses. The first contends that formal, legal institutions can safeguard democracy by prosecuting and convicting illiberal politicians. The second, by contrast, argues that informal, elite gatekeeping is essential to stymie illiberal candidates. To understand how different forms of accountability shape public attitudes toward illiberal politicians, we will conduct a survey experiment in Brazil in May 2024 regarding former president Jair Bolsonaro. Survey respondents will be randomly assigned to a placebo condition, a textual treatment about the legal conviction of Bolsonaro, or a textual treatment about elite condemnation of Bolsonaro. We will measure the effect of these different treatment conditions on respondents' attitudes toward Bolsonaro, banning Bolsonaro, rule-of-law institutions, and democratic norms.