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Category: Analysis

Description: Predictive validity – the correct prediction of future events – is the most important measurement of the efficacy of a risk assessment instrument. The function of predictive validity is two-fold. First, it is important to correctly identify cases (also called sensitivity or the true-positive rate); that is, is an IPV risk assessment instrument able to correctly identify the people who will recidivate or commit IPV in the future? Second, correct classification of non-cases (also called specificity or true-negative rate) is also important; can an IPV risk assessment correctly identify those people who will not recidivate or commit future acts of IPV? Predictive validity is high when both the sensitivity and specificity of a risk assessment instrument are maximized and the false-positive (people classified as cases who do not recidivate) and false negative (people classified as non-cases who recidivate) rates are minimized. See the proposal for additional information.