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Habitat suitability and genetic structure of human populations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in Western Europe
- Colin D. Wren
- Ariane Burke
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Description: The human populations of the Last Glacial Maximum in Western Europe were constrained to small areas by the severity of the climatological and ecological landscape. Here we use an agent-based model of human mobility and interaction, based on ethnographic and archaeological data, on a reconstructed landscape of habitat suitability to evaluate the size and location of these areas, and the degree of genetic relatedness between people occupying these areas. In particular, we model the probability of agent foraging groups’ survival as a function of habitat suitability. The model’s simulated “genomes” of regionally specific markers allow us to track long-term trends of inter-regional interaction and mobility. The results agree with previous studies situating a large glacial refugium spanning southern France and northeastern Spain but we extend on those studies by demonstrating that higher rates of population growth in this refugium led to continuous out-migration and therefore genetic homogeneity across Western Europe with the possible exception of the Italian peninsula. These results concur with material culture data from known archaeological sites dating to the Last Glacial Maximum and make predictions for future ancient DNA studies.