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Biased beliefs about random samples
- Daniel Jacob Benjamin
- Don A. Moore
- Matthew Rabin
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Category: Project
Description: Project examines intuitive misconceptions of chance. The authors affectionately referred to this as the "Barney" project. Don't ask us why.
This paper describes results of a pair of incentivized experiments on biases in probabilistic judgments about random samples. Consistent with the Law of Small Numbers (LSN), participants exaggerated the likelihood that short sequences and random subsets of coin flips would be balanced between heads and tails. Consistent with the Non-Belief in the Law of Large Numbers (NBLLN), participants underes…
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