Main content

Home

Menu

Loading wiki pages...

View
Wiki Version:
Replication materials for "The political economy of crime: Did Universal Credit increase crime rates?" (2022) *British Journal of Criminology* **Abstract**: Interest in the political economy of crime goes back to sociology’s founding fathers, but the nature of the relationship between restrictive social security systems and crime remains contested. This paper exploits exogenous variation in the introduction of Universal Credit to local areas across England and Wales to address this question. We first use fixed effects models, with a range of controls, to show that as Universal Credit enrolments increase in a given area, so does the crime rate. We then use interrupted time series analysis to show that, despite Universal Credit being rolled out at different times in different places, its introduction in each local area coincides with a positive shift in the trend in crime. These findings hold for total crime, property crime and violent crime. Borrowing from Strain Theory and Routine Activities Theory, we suggest that changes to the pool of motivated offenders may help to explain these correlations.
OSF does not support the use of Internet Explorer. For optimal performance, please switch to another browser.
Accept
This website relies on cookies to help provide a better user experience. By clicking Accept or continuing to use the site, you agree. For more information, see our Privacy Policy and information on cookie use.
Accept
×

Start managing your projects on the OSF today.

Free and easy to use, the Open Science Framework supports the entire research lifecycle: planning, execution, reporting, archiving, and discovery.