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Description: This study tested the role of confidence for curiosity and for surprise about prediction errors. In a series of numerical facts tasks, participants (N = 29) generated predictions and rated their confidence in the prediction before seeing the correct answer. The increase in pupil size before seeing the correct answer was used as a physiological marker of curiosity, and the increase in pupil size after seeing the correct answer was used as a physiological marker of surprise. Results revealed that the pupillometric marker of curiosity increased with confidence in a prediction, but decreased for predictions made with either very high or very low confidence. Results further revealed that high-confidence prediction errors and low-confidence correct responses yielded a pupillary surprise response, suggesting that unexpected results evoked surprise. Together, results underline the role of confidence in a prediction for the occurrence of epistemic emotions such as curiosity and surprise.

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