The statistical significance filter leads to overoptimistic expectations of replicability (Vasishth, Mertzen, Jäger, Gelman, 2018)

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Description: Shravan Vasishth, Daniela Mertzen, Lena A. Jäger, and Andrew Gelman. The statistical significance filter leads to overoptimistic expectations of replicability. Journal of Memory and Language, 103:151-175, 2018. Officlal open Access article: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jml.2018.07.004

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Video of talk given at ISBA 2018, Edinburgh It is well-known in statistics (e.g., Gelman & Carlin, 2014) that treating a result as publishable just because the p-value is less than 0.05 leads to overop- timistic expectations of replicability. These overoptimistic expectations arise due to Type M(agnitude) error: when underpowered studies yield significant results, effect size estimates are guarant...

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