QES: Eliciting and Modeling Probability Forecasts of Continuous Quantities

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  1. Thomas S. Wallsten

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Abstract: This experiment explored various methods for modeling and aggregating continuous probability distributions from relatively few discrete judgments by individual forecasters. Our results provide compelling evidence that accurate continuous subjective probability forecasts can be modeled from a small set of discrete ordinal forecasts, and that these continuous distributions can be aggregat...

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