Higher potential compound flood risk in Northern Europe under anthropogenic climate change

Contributors:
  1. Douglas Maraun
  2. Michalis I. Vousdoukas
  3. Evangelos Voukouvalas
  4. Mathieu Vrac
  5. Lorenzo Mentaschi
  6. Martin Widmann

Date created: | Last Updated:

: DOI | ARK

Creating DOI. Please wait...

Create DOI

Category: Project

Description: Compound flooding (CF) is an extreme event taking place in low-lying coastal areas as a result of co-occurring high sea level and large amounts of runoff, caused by precipitation. The impact from the two hazards occurring individually can be significantly lower than the result of their interaction. Both the risk of storm surges and heavy precipitation, as well as their interplay is likely to change in response to anthropogenic global warming. Despite CF relevance, a comprehensive risk assessment beyond individual locations at the country scale is missing. In particular, no studies have examined possible future CF risk. Here we estimate the potential CF risk along the European coasts both for present and future climate according to the business-as-usual (RCP8.5) scenario. Under current climate conditions, the locations experiencing the highest risk are mostly located along the Mediterranean Sea. However, future climate projections show emerging risk along parts of the Atlantic coast and the North Sea. The increase of the risk is mostly driven by an intensification of precipitation extremes. In several European regions, increasing CF risk should be considered as a potential hazard aggravating the risk caused by the mean sea level rise (SLR).

License: CC-By Attribution 4.0 International

Files

Loading files...

Citation

Tags

Recent Activity

Loading logs...

OSF does not support the use of Internet Explorer. For optimal performance, please switch to another browser.
Accept
This website relies on cookies to help provide a better user experience. By clicking Accept or continuing to use the site, you agree. For more information, see our Privacy Policy and information on cookie use.
Accept
×

Start managing your projects on the OSF today.

Free and easy to use, the Open Science Framework supports the entire research lifecycle: planning, execution, reporting, archiving, and discovery.