![enter image description here][1] Figure 3.1: Evaluation of the AdriSC unSWAN significant wave height distributions against measurements (a) for all the available stations and selected storm events as a scatter plot showing the density (number of occurrences #) with hexagonal bins, (b) separately for the Italian and Croatian stations as a quantile-quantile plot, and (c) separately for the bora and sirocco events as violin plot distributions To assess the skill of the AdriSC unSWAN model, the last 24-h of the 1-min significant wave height, peak wave period and mean wave direction results are extracted from the 36 simulations carried out in evaluation mode at the 11 locations of the wave stations. The data are analyzed in three steps. First, the overall behavior of the model is presented as a scatter plot for the entire set of simulations and measurements. Then, the quantile-quantile distributions of the wave parameters are displayed separately for the Italian and Croatian wave stations and, finally, the performance of the unSWAN model wave distributions during bora and sirocco events is showed with violin plots. ![enter image description here][2] Figure 3.2: Analysis of the northern Adriatic storm surge distributions during the 14 sirocco events as quantile-quantile analysis of the AdriSC ADCIRC results and the measurements at Venice and Trieste tide-gauge stations The AdriSC ADCIRC model capability to reproduce the storm surges in the northern Adriatic and more specifically in the Venice Lagoon and the Gulf of Trieste is first assessed with a sea level distribution quantile-quantile analysis of the available hourly measurements and the ADCIRC model results – extracted at the locations of the two tide gauges from the last 24-h results of the 14 sirocco simulations carried out in evaluation mode. To be noted, (1) as the bathymetry used in the ADCIRC model may be imprecise and may use a different vertical reference level than the tide gauges, the local mean sea levels of the model results at Venice and Trieste locations were adjusted by adding the difference between the measured and the modelled mean values calculated for the ensemble of the 14 sirocco events; (2) as tides play an important role on extreme storm surges, they were not removed from the sea level signals, and (3) as this study only aims to present the climate change impact on the sea level distributions during sirocco events in the northern Adriatic Sea and not to reproduce individual storm surges, the model evaluation can be performed with the presented quantile-quantile analysis. ![enter image description here][3] Figure 3.3: Evaluation of the ERA5 and AdriSC WRF 15-km, 3-km and 1.5-km model results against wind speed (quantile-quantile or q-q plot panel a) and direction (rose plot panel e) at 10 m, mean sea-level pressure (q-q plot panel b) and air temperature and dew point at 2 m (q-q plots panels c and d) measurements at the 9 available stations. To assess the skills of the ERA5 and AdriSC WRF models during extreme bora events in the northern Adriatic region, the hourly 10-m wind speed and direction, 2-m air temperature and dew point as well as the mean sea-level pressure are extracted from the 22 selected storm simulations for 9 land-based station locations. The findings of the evaluation of the atmospheric models are that: (1) all models are capable to reproduce, with a certain level of accuracy, the observed 2-m air temperature and dew point as well as the mean sea-level pressure independently of their resolution and physics; (2) the reproduction of the 10-m wind speed and direction highly depends on the model resolution – i.e. the representation of the Velebit mountain complex orography; (3) the lower-ground meteorological stations are likely to strongly underestimate extreme bora surface speed and (4) the ERA5 model seems incapable to reproduce the strength of severe bora surface winds over the whole northern Adriatic region. [1]: https://files.osf.io/v1/resources/8hekf/providers/osfstorage/5e3913cefa39b701b11dcc6f?mode=render [2]: https://files.osf.io/v1/resources/8hekf/providers/osfstorage/5e391a88fa39b701b51dce96?mode=render [3]: https://files.osf.io/v1/resources/8hekf/providers/osfstorage/5ec4dd18edc58c009c0b3e6c?mode=render