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Eliciting beliefs when the distribution matters: a horse race of elicitation interfaces
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Description: We develop an intuitive, click-and-drag interface to elicit continuous belief distributions of any shape. We test this interface against the state of the art in the experimental economics literature -- a text-based interface and multiple sliders -- and in the online forecasting industry -- the Metaculus interface. We collect quantitative data on the speed and accuracy of reported beliefs in a series of induced-value scenarios varying by granularity, shape, and time constraints. We also collect subjective data on perceived difficulty and understanding. The aim is to document and measure which belief elicitation interface is more intuitive, easy to use, and yields precise beliefs. We provide a free and open source, ready to use and scalable oTree plugin of our click-and-drag interface, alongside a state-of-the-art oTree plugin for the other interfaces.