The Effects of Numeracy and Presentation Format on Judgments of Contingency

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Covariation information can be used to infer whether or not a causal link plausibly exists between two dichotomous variables, and such judgments of contingency are central to many critical and everyday decisions. However, individuals can lack the ability necessary to evaluate covariation information effectively and may resort to the use of heuristics, which can lead to sub-optimal outcomes. This study investigated whether presenting covariation information in a composite bar chart increased accuracy of contingency judgments, and whether it can mitigate errors caused by low numeracy skills.

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