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Predicting outcomes in a sequence of binary events
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Description: This experimental program comprises six experiments that test the effect of base rate information on observers' judgment patterns for sequences of binary events.
Abstract: Beliefs like the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot Hand have interested cognitive scientists, economists, and philosophers for centuries. We propose that these judgment patterns arise from the observer's mental models of the sequence-generating mechanism, moderated by strength of belief in an a priori base rate. In six behavioral experiments, participants observed one of three mechanisms g…
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